To listen to the news this month, you would think that the worst predictions for a Covid-19 tsunami have come to pass and more. Not just a second wave, but a tsunami. But what do the numbers really state? I was not planning on revisiting my predictions and where the cases are running till mid November, but with the way the news is talking about the conditions as we come toward the end of October, I felt that I had to come back to this topic.
As those who have read my previous posts, you know I stick to the metric of deaths attributed to COVID-19. That is the most consistent statistic available to me to analyze. Sure, you can argue that some of the deaths did not come from COVID-19 itself, but a consistent standard has been applied to determining this metric over the months. And although short term numbers can be manipulated by adding in deaths that were not reported previously, it is still the most difficult metric to manipulate.
So, how has October been. I note that there are still 2 days left in October that I do not have numbers for. But, we are currently 1500 plus deaths fewer than September, which I will remind you was a good drop from August metrics. October also has one more day than September. If we have average numbers for the last two days of October, the month would end up only 100 deaths ahead of September. If we match the highest numbers from this month, we would only be looking at 600 more deaths than last month, with one additional day. In summary, October has averaged slightly less deaths per day than September, which in turn was less than August.
How are my predictions going? I predicted earlier in the post https://www.streetsmartideas.com/2020/10/covid-19-estimates-update/ that numbers would be in the 500-800 range for seven day average of deaths for October through December. So far, we have ranged from 680 – 797. But I will admit that numbers are trending slightly higher. I think in November the seven day mortality rate will go a bit higher than I originally predicted. I think we will see numbers get up to 1000. So yes, there is a little wave coming in November. But so far there has not been a significant wave, and definitely not the tsunami you would expect from reading the news.
Instead of the fear mongering, I think the real story should be how we are no where near the current CDC predictions. The CDC has stated they expect another 200,000 deaths by the end of the year. Joe Biden mentioned that number more than once in the last debate, stating it as if it were a guarantee rather than a prediction. But lets look at what would have to happen for that prediction to come true. We would have to see an average of 2850 deaths a day over November and December. And that is assuming that October counts toward that 200,000 number. That is a 350% increase from what we are seeing now, which just shows how ridiculous the predictions are.
I see the coverage of this pandemic as the story of Chicken Little. An acorn falls, and Chicken Little starts claiming that the sky is falling. Henny Penny, Goosey Loosey, Turkey Lurky, Ducky Lucky all join in on the fear. I could cast this story with names, but I will leave it up to the reader to come up with their own casting for this ridiculous story. The madness has actually grown to a cast of millions running around saying the sky is falling. I am just hoping that Foxy Woxy will put a stop to this madness.