On September 1st, I made estimates for daily deaths from COVID-19 would be at the end of September. Actually, I updated my estimates based on the numbers at the end of August. At the first of August, I had estimated numbers for August and September. For August, I had estimated total deaths for the month to be about 5000 higher than July, and that the numbers at the end of September would be between 500-600 deaths per day average for the last 7 days of September. When I reviewed my estimates on 1 September, I saw that I was low in my estimate for August by about about 10%. So I increased my estimate for end of September to be 600-700 deaths per day average over the last 7 days, and that I expected the true numbers to be closer to 700..
As I feel everyone who makes estimates and predictions should do, now that the numbers are out, it is time to see how well or how badly I estimated. After all, if you don’t hold yourself accountable for your estimates, and review your models, how can you claim to be a true scientist. And more importantly, how can you better understand the virus and improve estimation techniques. So how did the numbers align with my estimates? Well, again I was slightly low. I was expecting a last 7 day average of 600-700, and most likely at the top of that estimate. In actuality, the average for the last seven days was 712.1428. So while not exact, I would call this a very close estimate. I give myself an A- on this estimate. I would say that my estimates have been better than most of the ones that I have read from other sources.
My modeling technique is based on watching what has occurred in other countries, while making allowances for the differences of lifestyle in the USA compared to those countries. I believe that there are certain characteristics of the virus that are not well understood yet, but that factors such as population density, housing type and landscape both manmade and natural, combine to cause certain urban areas to most affected by the virus. The freedom of movement in the USA over large areas allows the virus to travel from area to area, meaning that all areas will eventually get their turn at the virus. I do look at the willingness of the population to practice social distancing, but do not take masking into consideration, as I feel it is only appropriate when social distancing cannot be practiced. If a society is observing social distancing, then masking will occur in those few cases where social distancing cannot occur. If a social group is not concerned about social distancing, then the virus will flourish whether masking is mandated or not. I also look heavily at the senior population, as that population is most likely to die from the virus.
So where do I think we are. The majority of our big hot spots have already been hit. I do not think they will become big hot spots again. New York, Chicago, Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Miami, etc. have seen their worst. With October temperatures, a lot of people will be able to turn off the AC and not turn to heat, which I think will help things out this month. Some states are opening up, but the seniors who are most at risk are least likely to take advantage of the opening, so I do not see any major growth of deaths from that either. I think we will continue to simmer, with different areas getting increases in cases for a while. I think that trend will continue over the last quarter of 2020. We will continue with 7 day average death rates in the 500 to 800 range. Possibly by the end of December we might get below 500. We might even get a glimpse of that in October, before we get into colder months of November and December. One or two weeks may top the 800 number also. But as always, I will come back and review my estimates a couple times between now and then. Because I am not trying to provide fear or even hope. I want to try to help us look at the patterns that truly affect the spread of this virus so that we can be better prepared to handle the next pandemic.