I expect this will be my final blog discussing the vaccine and with it COVID-19. This will be a long post, as it will summarize several ideas, as well as present a few that have not been covered yet.
I want to start off with vaccines being used to divide us. This is bad, for a number of reasons. First, if you want to blame anything on the slow adoption of vaccines, blame this division. The divisive nature of our country right now is causing many issues. We must find a path to reduce this division, or we are doomed as a country. Second, the blame game will only strengthen the resolve of those who are not convinced the vaccine is the best option for them. Third, this division relies on government to enforce, and that enforcement comes at a high cost of our freedoms. Once we give up a freedom, it is much easier for the next one to be taken away. We have to look no further back than 9-11 to see how decisions made in the heat of battle come to haunt us later. After 9-11, we gave up many freedoms in order to feel safe. Later, we came to realize that giving up those freedoms made us feel safer, but did not really make us safer. The freedoms were already given up, and undoing that was not an easy task. Finally, I want to mention that each of us needs to make a decision on the vaccine based on our own circumstances, and the truth as we see it. While the risk of major complications due to the vaccine is small, the risk still exists. Those who calculate their risk as higher, should be free to make decisions for themselves. Those who decide to get the vaccine should also be respected for making the decision that works best for them. Both made the decision for themselves based on their truth, and that should be respected.
You noticed I mentioned “their truth” several times in the last paragraph. Let me talk about that next. Very few people are privileged to have access to enough data to come close to knowing the real truth. This is bad, but something that we have to live with for now. Therefore, each person’s truth is based on the trust they have with the “experts” that dictate truth. These experts are mainly the drug companies and the CDC. The drug companies obviously have a bias. The CDC has proven their intent to hide/censor the data that disagrees with their current message. Therefore, it is reasonable for people to not believe these experts when they make a proclamation without the data to go along with it. Until very recently it has been impossible to even guess at the effectiveness of the vaccine. You can’t blame people who hope the experts are correct and act accordingly, any more than you can blame people who do not believe the experts. If you want to blame anyone, blame these experts.
Speaking of the data, as you know, I have been doing regular analysis of the data that is publicly available. While I am convinced that the data is not flawless, I do believe that the flaws have been reasonably consistent, making comparisons of that data reasonable indicators of the effectiveness of our defensive actions during the pandemic. Based on my analysis of the data that is publicly available, I can tell that the claim that the vaccine was 90% effective was obviously false. In fact, I could not find any statistically significant evidence in that data to correlate case fluctuations with the vaccine. The same goes for masking. I could not find statistically significant evidence that masks were stopping the virus. Now let me stop you before you jump to the conclusion that I believe neither have any effect. Much of the data that would be needed to know for sure how effective these measures are is being hidden from us, probably because they think it is for our own good. They think that we are too stupid to make decisions unless there is only one path offered. While the vaccine and masking may have had some impact on the virus spread, it was nowhere near the amount being stated. The experts decided that it was better to keep you in the dark and ask you to trust them than to try to convince you that a small benefit is better than nothing.
Let me give one example of data analysis. Currently, 80% of those age 65 and over are fully vaccinated. If vaccinations were working at 90% effectiveness, that would take 72% of that age group out of the pool of those getting sick, or almost 3 out of every four. Those in the 18-50 range average about 50% vaccinated. That takes out about 45% of the population. This is a statistically significant difference by age, but we can’t see a statistically significant difference in the case and death rates compared to before vaccinations started. Based on this, I can fairly well state that the vaccine is no where near 90% effective. At 10% effective we take out 8 and 4.5 percent of those populations. That is not such a significant difference, so we can not rule out a 10% effective rate. We know the effectiveness is less than 90%, but we do not know if it is 0%, or 10% or maybe even 40%. If we had reliable raw data that stated cases and deaths by vaccination status, then we could better evaluate the true effectiveness of the vaccines. But the CDC has instead consistently denied problems with the vaccine, even claiming that 98% of all cases were unvaccinated. They are still claiming that 98% of all hospitalizations are of unvaccinated people. The best argument I have seen for the vaccine was an article that claimed that 25% of cases in Los Angeles were from vaccinated people. Now a lot of people would look at that headline and assume it is bad news for vaccines advocates. But I see from that statement, a hint at actual truth. I already know the vaccines are not 90% effective. At 25% of the cases being vaccinated, that would work out to about a 40% to 50% effective rate. Even if the success rate was 35%, it may be worth taking the vaccine for those who do not have allergies or other issues that increase the risk of taking the vaccine. How about giving us the truth.
As to the spike that is occurring now, it was not unforeseen by myself and several others. Any reasonable analysis of the data would indicate that there would be a spike in cases in the south from July through August. We can expect a similar spike in November – December in the north. Just as this spike is being blamed on a new variant and the unvaccinated, I expect that another new variant will be the given cause of the spike that occurs in those months. When that happens, you can quote that I predicted it. I also predict that after this year, we will settle into regular seasonal peaks of the virus, but with lower death levels than are currently seen. I also predict that we will see annual COVID vaccines to reduce the annual risk, similar to the flu shot.
Lets talk a bit about the vaccine next. On the positive side for the vaccine, we can push down some of the conspiracy theories surrounding the vaccine. There is no microchip in the vaccine. The vaccine will not change your DNA. The vaccine does not let the government track you. Even if the government wanted to track you, they do not have the technology. Now, when it comes to Facebook, Google and Amazon, they have the technology, and do not need a vaccine. These claims from the government are actually true.
Next lets look at the arguments that go both ways. The first is that the vaccine has been in development for years. While mRNA technology has been researched for years, it is important to note that no marketable vaccine has come out of this research until now. There is some reasonable suspicion that the COVID pandemic was seen as an opportunity to market this research. Second, while the vaccine has mild to moderate short term only side effects for the majority of those taking it, there are a small number of people who have had longer term and more severe negative effects that correlate with the vaccine. The actual percentages have not been released, so we do not know if that is 1% or .0001% or somewhere in between. Third, the vaccine has been approved for emergency release. This process is there for occasions such as this where the potential for good far exceeds the potential for bad. While this is a shortcut in the normal testing of a vaccine, at least in theory the shortcut was only to cut 4 months off the required data collection from the final experiment. The vaccines have now been submitted for full approval. Assuming that full approval is granted, that would mean that the vaccine is believed to meet the higher standards of safety normally used. But we have to trust that the CDC board members have not been pressured to make that decision. And of course, in normal times, approval of any drug in less than a year is unheard of. These are claims the government is making that are partially true.
So how would I work to get a higher vaccination rate, if I was the head of the CDC? The first effort I would make would be to reach out to those who research says is a big group not vaccinated. That is younger people in lower income jobs. They claim to want to get vaccinated, but situations keep them from getting there. This is the easiest group to access, but we are doing it all wrong. The problem these people have is that they do not get regular time off. Getting them 48 hours additional time off with no risk to their jobs, and without losing the pay for that timeframe, would give them the opportunity to do what they want to do anyway. This would be a win/win, and a much better use of the money than incentive programs that would not replace the loss of income these people expect during and after the shot. Second, I would make a concerted effort to make sure that the data collection and presentation is as open and honest as possible. I realize that some in the institution have lost their credibility, and would remove some individuals to try to get trust back. If they are truly concerned about the well-being of the people, those individuals would happily step aside rather than being a hindrance to vaccine acceptance. If not, then they need to be removed anyway. In doing so, I feel I could reach another group of people. There will be some we will never reach. And that should be okay. Some will not want the vaccine because of their own health concerns. Some have distrust of our drug heavy reaction to all medical issues. And some will always believe the conspiracy theories. But just like those who get vaccinated, they are doing what they feel is best for them, and that must be an acceptable thing.
Lets talk a bit about what this has done to science. Science is rarely a 100% certainty. Science can’t even tell me for certain whether that cup of coffee I had this morning is good or bad for me. But suddenly we are seeing “science experts” make claims with 100% certainty. Anyone disagreeing with those claims are now censored, their jobs are threatened, and they are cancelled. With the coffee example, I can look at the studies that contradict, look at how they were done, and then make my own risk/benefit analysis. With COVID and the vaccine, I can only look at one sided results. It is difficult to make a good analysis when the only studies that are available are those that support a particular bias. I realize that scientific studies usually have a bias. The money that pays for these studies is not provided without strings. Knowing the source of funding, and carefully reading the studies with an eye to bias, lets me get a better picture of the truth. This truth is being hidden from us now.
Next lets talk about what this has done to our country. We have Governors that have overstepped their authority. Whether it is the Governor of my State, Illinois, or the Governor of Florida, both are overstepping their authority, and this should be seen as a tragedy in both cases. The Federal government is also overstepping their authority. We even have cases of people who are on school boards getting their professional license status challenged because they didn’t vote the right way. This is not what America stands for. And this cannot be tolerated. Our political elite are dividing us one against the other, and we can’t stand for long if we allow that to continue.
Finally, I want to talk personally. I want to know why I have not been affected by the virus. I only wear masks when required, which in the area I live in is not often. I go to church regularly, which everyone says is a high risk activity. I go out to eat in local establishments. I welcome friends at my house. I have traveled. I have, however, maintained a fairly good social distance from others. I am an introvert, so that is normal for me. Since the pandemic started, I have had one cold. Nothing else. I have never been tested for COVID-19, or for antibodies. Have I just been lucky? Maybe my time is just around the corner. Or maybe I have been exposed at some point and just didn’t get sick. Maybe I have a natural immunity to the virus. After all, I have never had strep throat and I have only had the flu once in my life. I do not know. And you want to know a secret. Neither do the experts. The experts do not have these answers. Please remember that before you tell me to listen to them. And don’t try to blame me for the spread of the virus. As far as I know, I have not had the virus, and the only one of my regular contacts that got the virus had other known exposure.
As I stated at the beginning of this blog, I expect this will be my last blog on the vaccine and covid. I think this tangent has taken me away from my actual goal for this blog. The goal for this blog has always been to try to find the middle ground between those things that divide us as a country and as a church. While I have tried always to find the middle ground with the COVID situations, the government’s handling of the situation has probably made my writings here seem to fall too much on one side. I hope with this summary, that I have been able to find the middle ground on this topic. But anyway, I will close out this topic with a plea to end the division. Don’t define people by mask wear or vaccination status. Don’t support the government ripping away our rights and freedoms. Don’t believe the hype on either side. Come to the center, where division and labels are looked down upon, and people are just that, people.