What does the data say?
Well, we have been vaccinating people for 3 months now. I hear people getting all excited because they have got their vaccine and are fully protected. I got my shots. I am protected. People are trusting data from companies about their own products, approved by our government, which has been focused on vaccine as the only solution to the pandemic. But for me, I want to see numbers. I grew up in Missouri, so you got to show me, not just tell me it works. For now, the only shots I am taking are alcohol based.
So let’s start laying out the numbers. So far 44 million American’s have been vaccinated. There have also been a total of 29.3 million confirmed cases of the virus. Of course we have no idea what percent of the 29.3 million with natural immunity are also part of the 44 million who received their shots, but lets assume that at least somewhere between 15 and 20 percent of Americans have some form of immunity. That is of course based on the numbers we are being presented, which are questionable.
Speaking of those numbers, they are trending down since early January. The seven day average for covid cases is 22% of what they were. The seven day average of deaths is 32.8% of what they were. Sounds good right? Obviously it must be the vaccine that has accomplished this drop in cases. Not so fast. There are always multiple factors that are involved in these cases. And there is reason to believe that success of the vaccine is not the primary driver here.
We are being told that the vaccine is being delivered based on a priority system, with the highest priority being those whose death rates are considerably higher than the rest of the population. Specifically the goal has been to vaccinate those over 65 and those with preexisting conditions. Since those with highest death rates are being vaccinated first, we should expect the vaccine to result in a bigger drop in deaths than in cases as the vaccines kick in. However, the cases have dropped faster than the deaths.
So what are some factors that can explain the drop in cases and deaths? First off, we are probably seeing a seasonal drop in cases, that many scientists were predicting. Another probability is that as more people are getting vaccinated, they are less likely to get tested. This reduction in testing could be reducing the number of cases being reported. And a third possibility is that we are nearing a tipping point where the number of people with immunity is high enough that spread is slowing down. This last one is the least likely, but still possible. It is probable that many different factors are at play in the numbers. But the numbers just don’t yet match the results I would expect.
Don’t get me wrong. I am not writing off the vaccine just yet. Like most of you, I want it to work. I want to be rid of all the pandemic craziness we have put up with for the last year. There are always many variables with data like this. I am not going to assume that just because the data doesn’t match what I expect now, it means the vaccine is not working. I have had more than my fill recently of “science” that quickly jumps to the conclusion they want by manipulating data and assumptions to fit the agenda they are being paid to prove. No, I will quietly state that I am not convinced yet, and keep watching the data to see what happens next.