Recap and Analysis
Well, I have to say that I missed the mark on my predictions for the last two months of the year. I stated that the death numbers would climb to about 1000. The numbers as reported climbed to an daily average the last 3 weeks November of about 1450. The last seven days of November had an average of 1453, with 2 of the last 7 days being above 2000 deaths per day. In December the death rate shot up, averaging 2300 – 2550 deaths per day in every week. The first seven days of December saw an average of 2219 deaths, with 5 of the first 7 days being over 2000 deaths per day.
So what happened. Why did the death rates go as high as they did. I have to admit, I am not sure. One possible explanation is that the colder weather has triggered a spike in true cases. Some people predicted that the virus would be less deadly with warmer weather. Maybe that was true. Another possible explanation is that several states with large populations are now getting their spike in cases, as well as deaths. This could be due to pandemic fatigue or other factors. It is true that the death rise has been higher in some states than others, with some states hardly seeing the rise at all. It could be due to pandemic fatigue for seniors, those most vulnerable. Many have been locked down since the beginning of this pandemic. They are the ones with the most to lose here. If they get the disease, they are most likely to die from it. If they hide in lockdown, they are giving up a higher percentage of their expected remaining lifetime. Most likely it is a combination of all of the above, plus one other factor.
The numbers seem to point to one other thing. The sudden jump in the death numbers from the last week of November to the first week of December do not make sense. After a steady 1450 cases the last three weeks of November, we jumped to a steady 2250 – 2450 cases through the month of December. This 40-50% jump in deaths was sudden, and happened from 30 November to 1 December. Statistically, that is not how nature works. The numbers lead me to a strong conclusion that the collection of the numbers has changed. For a 40-50% change to happen overnight, the best explanation is that the definition of a COVID death must have changed to make that happen. In time, we might be able to see whether excess deaths for those months also had the same jump. I will be watching for that data. So far the data does not show a corresponding spike in excess deaths, but it is too early to be absolutely certain.
Now for my predictions for the future. I will assume that this new definition of COVID deaths will stay steady. But of course, as I analyze in the future, I will be looking for other indications that the numbers are being manipulated. My predictions are going to assume that the vaccine works, gets administered first to those most vulnerable, and that group will at least get their first vaccination during the month of January for those who want to get it. Based on those assumptions, I would expect the numbers to sl0wly fall during the month of January. Possibly getting down to 2000-2100 by the end of January. February should show a more dramatic drop, with deaths dropping by 20-30%, putting deaths at 1400-1600 per day at the end of the month. Possibly lower. I would expect to see another 20% drop in March, with the numbers dropping to close to 1000 per day by the end of the month. With the warmer months in April, I expect deaths to drop heavily, probably to 200 per day or less. I hope the numbers that I am predicting are high, and I want to emphasize that I believe some change in the counting occurred on 1 December, increasing the counted deaths by 50%, so that 1500 deaths now would be the equivalent of 1000 deaths in October. But that is what I am predicting will happen. As always, I will come back with updates and reflections on the numbers as they come out.